Disclaimer: I am not a doctor (even though I can pretend as one), Scientist, Politician or so called experts on all TV programs.
So, we can’t watch any news program that is not 95% about Covid-19 or go to websites, social media or anything else without hearing about it. After a few weeks of overload I am confused… May be someone can explain the terms better.
Flatten the Curve
Alright, we all need to lock ourselves up to flatten the curve. Ok, what does flatten the curve mean? I see these nice graphs that show flat lines or even downward curve. I think it is good news? Confused?
I think flatten the curve is number of new cases reported either less or same as last 5 days. Ok, if we extend stay at home for another 30 days and all curves are flat… what happens then? They will stay flat as soon as we come back out in droves? In my layman’s understanding it is to stop the spread exponentially and then figure out what to do next. Because as soon as we OPEN it up without a solid plan the curve ain’t going to stay flat.
So what is the plan to open up? What does let’s open it up mean? That’s coming next.
Rapid and Enhanced Testing
Ok, we have swab testing, quick test, Anti bodies test… all kinds of tests and they did over 4 million tests in US and 400,000+ in India. I found this handy website that gave testing numbers. And stay with me here.. I heard false positive tests, false negative tests, defective test kits from China, etc. etc. So does anyone really think we have this testing thing under control for the entire world population?
The other comment I read was the only way to get back to normal is to test the heck out of everyone and it available everywhere. Hmmmm… do you think we will have enough test kits for everyone? Also, how many times everyone needs to be tested?
Emirates airlines is testing every passenger before boarding this week (on their limited schedule). So if this is the new norm, then as soon as someone lands will that country accept his test result? Ok, once they enter the country, their test result is useless unless they are guaranteed to be mixing with 100% tested and clean community…
So again, in my layman’s thinking… testing is a temporary fix and there is no way we will be able to keep up with it… even if we convert a lot of people into “testers”.
Which bring me to my last topic…
Lockdown to be or not to be extended
We have stay at home orders expiring soon, people are anxious to get back to work and life. India is on 30 days of supposedly strict lockdown (even though between 6 and 9 am it is like open season). We keep looking at these “studies” that predict lots of casualties to now about 60 K in US by August 3rd… they change these studies regularly. They are all based on data… no one is a messiah to predict the future. Heck, the state of Arizona is supposed to “peak” on April 27th whatever that means. After that we will go down automatically? India is doubling their cases every 4-7 days now after 30 days of lockdown.
So lockdown effective? Stay at home effective? To Mask or not to Mask? If you are as confused as I am, I may feel a little better. Everything is a guess or experiment. If we start opening for business and we see the curve going up, what are we going to do? lockdown again and test everyone?
Without a proven cure for Covid-19, I wouldn’t bet on any one projection on when we will be back to business as normal.
To conclude, again in my layman terms… the only option I see is to keep educating people, adopt to the new normal to reduce the spread… most of the people that want to live will be responsible. Every business need to innovate how they are going to contain the spread. Sitting at home and waiting for a politician or statistician to tell us what to do.. is not the solution. Present the actual information about virus, educate and let us be responsible to stay safe.